PredictionBook is now read-only ( read more ).

World governments will ban chemical/Biological/Nuclear weapons after The Third World War (WW III) and make it a penalty of death to all who develop such weapons … anywhere … on Earth.

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2040-01-16

  • Harbinger1 estimated 90% on 2011-11-17
  • JoshuaZ estimated 2% and said “Conjunction fallacy/narrative plausibility bias. ” on 2011-11-17
  • Anubhav estimated 0% on 2011-11-17
  • JoshuaZ estimated 0% and said “Yeah, ok. Anubhav is right. Let’s just go with not going to happen. Way too many conjunctions. ” on 2011-11-17
  • lavalamp estimated 0% and said “Harbinger1, I don’t see how all the things you predict can happen in the same universe…” on 2011-11-17
  • gwern estimated 1% and said “again, conditional probability would be a better formulation; see my just-made comment” on 2011-11-17
  • themusicgod1 estimated 10% on 2016-05-13
  • pranomostro estimated 1% and said “Base rate is already low, since global coorditation is quite hard, combined with conjunction.” on 2018-12-20
  • JoshuaZ estimated 0% on 2018-12-20
  • deleteyourbrain estimated 0% on 2019-04-26
  • JoshuaZ estimated 0% on 2019-04-26