Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025.
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2025-01-16
- Harbinger1 estimated 75% on 2011-11-17
- JoshuaZ estimated 1% and said “Conjunction fallacy at work. (Specific difficult tech and specific corporation). Related predictions: ” on 2011-11-17
- JoshuaZ said “Sorry. Related predictions:http://predictionbook.com/predictions/3213http://predictionbook.com/predictions/3212http://predictionbook.com/predictions/3211Harbinger, you seem to be much more confident about this than others here. ” on 2011-11-17
- Anubhav estimated 0% and said “Too soon. ” on 2011-11-17
- lavalamp estimated 1% on 2011-11-17
- gwern estimated 2% and said “let’s say 60% done at all per previous predictions; 25% commercialized (no quantum commericalized yet!); then 10% Intel is the first to market as opposed to actual quantum computer company = (0.6 * 0.25 * 0.1) * 100 = 1.5%, round to 2%” on 2011-11-17
- Anubhav estimated 1% and said “Revise upward as per gwern, but I think the 60% is too optimistic. ” on 2011-11-18
- JoshuaZ said “Gwern, earlier predictions were for prob that someone will factor a number larger than 100 using QC. (You have 40% for that by 2020, and 45% for 2030 in the linked predictions). 60% here is too high to be consistent with your earlier estimates. ” on 2011-11-18
- Emanuel Rylke estimated 1% on 2012-04-29
- RandomThinker estimated 2% on 2012-04-29
- gwern estimated 4% and said “note that I will judge this as for general quantum computation, not a specific restricted quantum algorithm like quantum annealing (which is what D-Wave is doing)” on 2012-10-06
- PseudonymousUser estimated 3% on 2013-11-16
- themusicgod1 estimated 47% on 2016-10-09
- JoshuaZ estimated 2% on 2016-10-09
- pranomostro estimated 1% on 2018-12-20
- deleteyourbrain estimated 0% on 2019-04-26