Worldwide biometric ID system will go online by 2022, unknown to the standard publics awareness.

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2022-12-30

  • Harbinger1 estimated 80% on 2011-11-17
  • Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17
  • JoshuaZ said “So how will you judge this if the public isn’t aware? Shouldn’t the deadline be a few years after when we might find out? on 2011-11-17
  • Anubhav said “The chance of this happening via governmental conspiracy without the public finding out is essentially nil. I suppose there’s a significant probability of some hacker group or the other managing to pull this off, but… does that count?on 2011-11-17
  • gwern estimated 1% and said “worldwide? as in, a single unified system where Russian officials can easily look up Thai IDs or Chinese look up American IDs?? no way.on 2011-11-17
  • Anubhav said “Status quo bias, gwern. There’s always the niggling possibility that nation states will just dissolve. (I’d make a prediction on that, but it’d be difficult to judge objectively.)on 2011-11-18
  • JoshuaZ estimated 2% on 2013-01-01
  • Tuxedage estimated 1% and said “2022 is far too soon.on 2013-01-01
  • Qiaochu estimated 0% and said ““Worldwide.” Agree with JoshuaZ. on 2013-01-02
  • themusicgod1 estimated 47% and said “not for lack of effort.on 2016-10-09
  • JoshuaZ estimated 3% on 2016-10-09
  • pranomostro estimated 0% on 2018-12-20
  • pranomostro estimated 2% and said “Resolution date should be further in the future, since we (by resolution criteria) won’t know that such a system is in place.on 2018-12-20
  • deleteyourbrain estimated 0% on 2019-04-26

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