Worldwide biometric ID system will go online by 2022, unknown to the standard publics awareness.

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2022-12-30

• Harbinger1 estimated 80% on 2011-11-17
• JoshuaZ said “So how will you judge this if the public isn’t aware? Shouldn’t the deadline be a few years after when we might find out? ” on 2011-11-17
• Harbinger1 changed the deadline from “on 2022-12-16” on 2011-11-17
• Anubhav said “The chance of this happening via governmental conspiracy without the public finding out is essentially nil. I suppose there’s a significant probability of some hacker group or the other managing to pull this off, but… does that count?” on 2011-11-17
• gwern estimated 1% and said “worldwide? as in, a single unified system where Russian officials can easily look up Thai IDs or Chinese look up American IDs?? no way.” on 2011-11-17
• Anubhav said “Status quo bias, gwern. There’s always the niggling possibility that nation states will just dissolve. (I’d make a prediction on that, but it’d be difficult to judge objectively.)” on 2011-11-18
• JoshuaZ estimated 2% on 2013-01-01
• Tuxedage estimated 1% and said “2022 is far too soon.” on 2013-01-01
• Qiaochu estimated 0% and said ““Worldwide.” Agree with JoshuaZ. ” on 2013-01-02
• themusicgod1 estimated 47% and said “not for lack of effort.” on 2016-10-09
• JoshuaZ estimated 3% on 2016-10-09
• pranomostro estimated 0% on 2018-12-20
• pranomostro estimated 2% and said “Resolution date should be further in the future, since we (by resolution criteria) won’t know that such a system is in place.” on 2018-12-20
• deleteyourbrain estimated 0% on 2019-04-26