Cognitive Implants will be available for consumer use by 2040.

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2040-11-17

• Harbinger1 estimated 80% on 2011-11-17
• JoshuaZ estimated 57% on 2011-11-17
• Harbinger1 changed the deadline from “on 2011-11-17” on 2011-11-17
• Anubhav estimated 90% on 2011-11-17
• lavalamp estimated 40% and said “implants that do what, exactly?” on 2011-11-17
• Anubhav said “I think it means brain implants in general. Just guessing from context here though.” on 2011-11-17
• gwern said “clinical trials: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/4304 what does ‘consumer’ mean? invasive surgery is a tough sell for unregulated on-demand stuff – even plastic surgery is a hella safer than brain surgery” on 2011-11-17
• Anubhav said “Well… you’d only need surgery the first time around. The next time you open a port on the back of your neck and plug in the implant. (Just one of the ways this could happen.)” on 2011-11-18
• Isaac estimated 65% on 2011-11-18
• themusicgod1 estimated 42% on 2016-10-09
• JoshuaZ estimated 62% on 2022-12-31