The United States, Canada, and Mexico will form the North American Union in August 2020.

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2020-08-30; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-08-30.

• Harbinger1 estimated 80% on 2011-11-17
• JoshuaZ estimated 0% and said “Harbinger, please look up the “conjunction fallacy”. ” on 2011-11-17
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 0% on 2011-11-17
• Anubhav estimated 0% on 2011-11-17
• gwern estimated 0% and said “I have discovered a truly marvelous proof that the NAU will be formed in July 2020, unfortunately this comment box is too narrow to contain it.” on 2011-11-17
• TrE estimated 0% on 2011-11-17
• Anubhav said “@gwern: You, sir, win one(1) internet. [We really need a karma system here.]” on 2011-11-18
• Isaac estimated 0% on 2011-11-18
• falenas108 estimated 0% on 2011-11-18
• Emanuel Rylke estimated 0% on 2012-04-29
• RandomThinker estimated 2% on 2012-05-07
• lukas estimated 0% on 2012-05-24
• simplicio estimated 0% on 2013-02-20
• Raahul_Kumar estimated 0% and said “I assume NAU is supposed to be like the EU and not just NAFTA.” on 2015-09-24
• Medea estimated 0% on 2015-10-08
• themusicgod1 estimated 3% and said “neither Clinton nor Trump supports this, the TPP and TiSA would probably have to be ratified first. This may yet be in the pipeline, but not by 2020. But August? yeah no.” on 2016-10-09
• JoshuaZ estimated 0% on 2016-10-09
• pranomostro estimated 0% on 2018-12-20
• JoshuaZ estimated 0% on 2018-12-20
• telegrafista estimated 5% on 2019-02-14
• deleteyourbrain estimated 0% on 2019-04-26
• arrowinthedark estimated 0% on 2020-08-12
• NickN estimated 0% on 2020-08-16
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-08-30.