the Earth will be hit by a less than a mile wide asteroid by 2029. Two will be seen and one will hit. Impact will be in the Pacific Ocean south of Guam.

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2029-07-29

• Harbinger1 estimated 80% on 2011-11-17
• JoshuaZ said “How large an asteroid are we talking about? Asteroid impacts even with one’s large enough for their to be meteorites that survive aren’t that rare. ” on 2011-11-17
• Harbinger1 changed their prediction from “the Earth will be hit by an asteroid by 2029. Two will be seen and one will hit. Impact will be in the Pacific Ocean south of Guam.” on 2011-11-17
• Harbinger1 changed their prediction from “the Earth will be hit by an less than a mile wide asteroid by 2029. Two will be seen and one will hit. Impact will be in the Pacific Ocean south of Guam.” on 2011-11-17
• Anubhav said “How would we know it’d happened? Can we see/detect asteroids that small? ” on 2011-11-17
• JoshuaZ said “We can detect some of that size. The problem isn’t the upper bound on size. The problem is a lower bound. If an asteroid was say 50 feet diam we could miss it if it landed in the Pacific. Tech will be better in a few years but still. ” on 2011-11-17
• JoshuaZ said “What this needs is not an upper bound on size but a lower bound. ” on 2011-11-17
• gwern estimated 5% and said “way too specific – as if one could predict number, detection, and location (lot of non-pacific non-south-of-guam ocean out there)” on 2011-11-17
• Anubhav said “Again, how would you check it? What’s the base probability of a given spot being hit by a small asteroid in a given month?” on 2011-11-18
• JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2013-03-27
• Malgidus estimated 5% on 2013-03-27
• themusicgod1 estimated 27% and said “by 2029 someone might have a camera south of guam capable of capturing that.” on 2016-10-09
• pranomostro estimated 5% on 2018-12-19
• Baeboo estimated 5% on 2018-12-20