With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars.

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2023-07-29; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2023-08-05.

• Harbinger1 estimated 75% on 2011-11-17
• Harbinger1 changed their prediction from “With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology witll be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars.” on 2011-11-17
• JoshuaZ estimated 0% and said “Conjunction fallacy- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conjunction_fallacy . ” on 2011-11-17
• Anubhav estimated 0% and said “Harbinger, the future is not whatever golden age sci-fi novel you’re carrying in your head right now. PLEASE look up the conjunction fallacy. ” on 2011-11-17
• PseudonymousUser said “before 2023-07-29?” on 2011-11-17
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 0% on 2011-11-17
• gwern estimated 0% and said “there would have to be a revolutionary technology to make any mars colony…” on 2011-11-17
• Isaac estimated 0% on 2011-11-18
• Emanuel Rylke estimated 0% on 2012-04-29
• themusicgod1 estimated 39% and said “if trump annexes canada, musk gets to mars, and tech drops out of that…maybe” on 2016-10-09
• JoshuaZ estimated 0% on 2016-10-10
• pranomostro estimated 2% on 2018-12-19
• pranomostro estimated 0% and said “Saw the resolve date” on 2018-12-19
• Baeboo estimated 0% on 2018-12-20
• deleteyourbrain estimated 0% on 2019-04-26
• JoshuaZ said “Getting an error message for trying to judge this prediction wrong. Can someone else try and judge it and see if it works for them?” on 2023-07-29
• Bruno Parga said “@JoshuaZ it errors out for me as well. There are predictions that can’t be resolved, an issue was created on Github: https://github.com/bellroy/predictionbook/issues/244 . It’s strange because AFAICT this doesn’t apply to all predictions.” on 2023-08-03
• PseudonymousUser   judged this prediction wrong on 2023-08-05.