Harbinger1 will be generally accepted to be a troll by the PB community

Created by shokwave on 2011-11-17; known on 2011-12-17; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-20.

• shokwave estimated 40% on 2011-11-17
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 30% on 2011-11-17
• Anubhav estimated 50% and said “Related: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/4485” on 2011-11-17
• Anubhav estimated 20% and said “Base probability should be lower. ” on 2011-11-17
• lavalamp estimated 10% on 2011-11-17
• gwern said “I suppose one could judge if harbinger1 said ‘lol yeah I was a troll’…” on 2011-11-17
• shokwave changed their prediction from “Harbinger1 is a troll” on 2011-11-18
• shokwave said “changed to make judging easier; you may wish to update your predictions” on 2011-11-18
• Grognor estimated 18% on 2011-12-04
• muflax   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-12-20.