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Harbinger1 is a genuine user but unfamiliar with LessWrong tropes

Created by shokwave on 2011-11-17; known on 2011-12-17; judged right by muflax on 2011-12-20.

  • shokwave estimated 40% on 2011-11-17
  • PseudonymousUser estimated 70% on 2011-11-17
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 60% on 2011-11-17
  • Anubhav estimated 70% and said “Note http://predictionbook.com/users/ahmedwael and and http://predictionbook.com/users/furlammiiEither these are sockpuppets or we’re being flooded by new users ‘unfamiliar with LessWrong tropes’. The latter seems likelier. ” on 2011-11-17
  • Anubhav estimated 50% and said “Oh wait, false dichotomy. The process that’s bringing in the new users might also bring in a troll. ” on 2011-11-17
  • Anubhav estimated 80% and said “… The base probability of someone being a troll should be lower. And it’s likely that a non-troll sci-fi fan unfamiliar with probability would post similar stuff. I have strayed from the path of Bayes. :( ” on 2011-11-17
  • JoshuaZ said “Note that David Brin on his blog suggested that readers go and see what they think of this. Probably a large part of the new influx is do that, including Harbinger. ” on 2011-11-17
  • JoshuaZ said “Also, how would one determine this prediction one way or another? ” on 2011-11-17
  • Anubhav said “Any judgement would have to be subjective. Still, I think this can be known to a reasonable degree of accuracy. If everyone agrees he’s a troll, it’s likely that…. Wait, groupthink. OK, how DO we determine this? ” on 2011-11-17
  • lavalamp estimated 80% on 2011-11-17
  • shokwave said “I think ‘generally accepted by the community to be X or not-X’ is good enough for this prediction” on 2011-11-18
  • muflax said “So what does the community think? Harbinger1 seems inactive now, but has participated normally in other predictions. I vote “genuine, not a troll”.” on 2011-12-19
  • gwern said “ditto (not that I liked this prediction in the first place)” on 2011-12-19
  • muflax said “I’ll wait a day in case someone disagrees, then judge as genuine” on 2011-12-19
  • muflax   judged this prediction right on 2011-12-20.