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Robert Mugabe of ZANU-PFwill lose to Morgan Tsvangirai of MDC-T in the next election(2012) in Zimbabwe

Created by general on 2011-11-17; known on 2013-06-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-08-05.

  • general estimated 99% on 2011-11-17
  • general on 2011-11-17
  • general estimated 100% and said “The last nail on zanu-pf coffin is what they will do at the Annual Conference December 2011.” on 2011-11-17
  • JoshuaZ said “You need to fix the deadline here. ” on 2011-11-17
  • gwern estimated 40% and said “edited deadline; WP says 6 year term for presidents, last in 2008 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elections_in_Zimbabwe#2008 so in 2014. tsvangirai lost last time and the yperinflation apparently didn’t lose mugabe that much sipport…” on 2011-11-17
  • JoshuaZ estimated 42% on 2011-11-17
  • general changed the deadline from “on 2014-05-01” on 2011-11-18
  • general changed the deadline from “on 2012-06-01” and changed their prediction from “Robert Mugabe will lose to tsvangirai in the next election in Zimbabwe” on 2011-11-18
  • general estimated 100% and said “If ZANU-PF goes on to impose Mugabe as the next Presidential candidate in December then they definetely will have lost the election without even going to the polls” on 2011-11-18
  • gwern said “delayed to 2013? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zimbabwean_presidential_election,_2013 bumping to June 2013” on 2012-08-28
  • general changed the deadline from “on 2012-06-01” on 2012-08-28
  • JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-08-05.