The USA will refuse again to commit to new Emmissions Regulations at COP17

Created by general on 2011-11-17; known on 2011-12-09; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-14.

• general estimated 100% on 2011-11-17
• gwern estimated 60% and said “https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_United_Nations_Climate_Change_Conference” on 2011-11-17
• leejhancox estimated 60% on 2011-11-18
• JoshuaZ estimated 58% on 2011-11-19
• NathanMcKnight estimated 60% on 2011-11-20
• general changed the deadline from “on 2011-12-05” on 2011-11-21
• antsan estimated 80% on 2011-11-23
• gwern said “NYT speculated the fresh set of email leaks will give US politicians additional reason to oppose it” on 2011-11-23
• Grognor estimated 75% on 2011-12-04
• chemotaxis101 estimated 70% on 2011-12-06
• gwern said “newspaper said US is fighting like dickens against regs. can we mark this wrong?” on 2011-12-11
• gwern said “in unrelated news, any PBers want to make suggestions or expansions of http://www.gwern.net/Prediction%20markets#how-i-make-predictions ? sort of a newbie guide, you could call it” on 2011-12-11
• gwern said “http://green.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/12/14/u-s-envoy-relieved-by-climate-talks-outcome/ little more confused – agreements were reached?” on 2011-12-14
• gwern said “reading WP and the refs, I’m even more confused at whether any commitment was made. withdrawing this one unless anyone wants to make a case for or against” on 2012-01-14
• gwern said “oh, can’t withdraw predictions not mine. hm, then I guess I’ll mark it wrong” on 2012-01-14
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-01-14.