A federal government run health insurance plan will not be approved before midnight ET 31 Dec 2009

Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-12-31; judged right by Spring on 2016-02-10.

• InTrade estimated 75% on 2009-10-14
• InTrade estimated 83% on 2009-10-14
• Larks estimated 90% on 2009-10-17
• InTrade estimated 79% on 2009-10-20
• othercriteria estimated 80% and said “Why not state the prediction in the affirmative?” on 2009-10-29
• gwern estimated 50% and said “Unclear what this is; a public health option? That didn’t get passed, and the health reform legislation was passed in 2010, not 2009. Marking wrong.” on 2010-07-29
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2010-07-29.
• Spring   judged this prediction right on 2016-02-10.
• Spring said “Note the negative in the wording – the failure to pass anything in 2009 means this is correct.” on 2016-02-10