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HP MoR: There will be at least one onscreen polyamorous relationship in the Methods of Rationality.

Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.

  • Anubhav estimated 10% on 2011-11-19
  • Anubhav said “Related: predictions 4532 through 4542.” on 2011-11-19
  • gwern estimated 40% and said “seems a bit low. eliezer has approved of the polyamory stuff on LW (IIRC, don’t think he himself is polyamorous)” on 2011-11-19
  • JoshuaZ estimated 35% on 2011-11-19
  • Anubhav estimated 40% and said “….. Harry gets a harem. Mandatory plot arc. Knowing EY, he can probably spin it into polyamory AND keep the fic from sounding like crack. Damn, I need to revise all my predictions… Unless this is just narrative plausibility bias? ” on 2011-11-20
  • Gedusa estimated 50% on 2011-11-20
  • shokwave estimated 60% and said “Involving main characters? Unlikely. Mentioned in passing about the Sixth Years, or some previous professor in the lore of Hogwarts? Likely.” on 2011-11-25
  • Anubhav changed the deadline from “on 2015-01-01” and changed their prediction from “There will be at least one polyamorous relationship in the Methods of Rationality.” on 2011-11-25
  • Anubhav said “(sigh) Unnoticed subjectivity rears its ugly head again. This new version is better, but now we’ve got the different shades of ‘onscreen’ to deal with. :-(” on 2011-11-25
  • Anubhav changed their prediction from “There will be at least one onscreen polyamorous relationship in the Methods of Rationality.” on 2012-04-09
  • lavalamp estimated 35% on 2012-04-10
  • JoshuaZ estimated 25% and said “Chance substantially reduced now. Obvious one was Harry/Hermione/Draco. That looks substantially less likely. ” on 2012-04-10
  • PotatoDumplings estimated 50% on 2012-04-10
  • PlacidPlatypus estimated 20% and said “It seems out of character for the setting. On the other hand, EY did seem somewhat defensive about his own polyamory. And there is the (repeated) reference to “one of those, you know, arrangements.”” on 2012-04-19
  • Oscar_Cunningham estimated 10% on 2012-04-20
  • DrDiaphanous estimated 30% on 2013-05-18
  • tylercurtis estimated 25% on 2013-05-19
  • Vulture estimated 1% and said “The spirit of EY’s comment about changing the subject seems relevant here.” on 2014-02-04
  • from3004 estimated 30% on 2014-10-16
  • JoshuaZ said “Deadline should probably get extended for this prediction. ” on 2015-01-01
  • Anubhav changed the deadline from “on 2015-01-01” on 2015-01-01
  • PlacidPlatypus   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-01-01.