HP MoR: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will be completed by 2013.

Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-01-01.

• Anubhav estimated 10% on 2011-11-19
• Anubhav on 2011-11-19
• Anubhav said “by 2014: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/4544 ; by 2015: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/4545” on 2011-11-19
• kilobug estimated 15% and said ““known on 2013-01-01” so by start of 2013 ? Hum, not much chance.” on 2011-11-19
• Mqrius estimated 10% on 2011-11-19
• gwern estimated 15% and said “15 latest author’s note says EY doesn’t plan to stop because the best stuff is to come, or something like that. doubt he’ll knock it off in the remaining year” on 2011-11-19
• JoshuaZ estimated 21% on 2011-11-19
• Porejide estimated 5% and said “His incentives are against ending it soon. Keeping it open keeps people interested. ” on 2011-11-22
• Anubhav said “……. Because no one gives a damn about the original Harry Potter now that it’s complete.” on 2011-11-22
• ahartell estimated 10% on 2012-03-07
• Anubhav estimated 0% and said “Nope, not happening.” on 2012-03-07
• spqr0a1 estimated 2% on 2012-04-09
• lavalamp estimated 10% on 2012-04-10
• Anubhav estimated 50% on 2012-04-10
• Ken estimated 10% on 2012-04-11
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 0% and said “I’m interpreting “completed” to be distinct from abandoned. And given both where the plot is right now and EY’s writing speed in the past, I would be pretty shocked if it happened this year.” on 2012-04-19
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 1% and said “Apparently this rounds down decimals. Good to know. 0.8%.” on 2012-04-19
• Oscar_Cunningham estimated 30% on 2012-04-20
• jesyspa estimated 10% and said “If it is, it probably won’t be in a good way.” on 2012-05-13
• ygert   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-01-01.