HP MoR: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will be completed by 2014.

Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.

• Anubhav estimated 30% on 2011-11-19
• Anubhav said “by 2013: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/4543 ; by 2015: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/4545” on 2011-11-19
• kilobug estimated 35% on 2011-11-19
• Mqrius estimated 20% on 2011-11-19
• gwern estimated 45% on 2011-11-19
• JoshuaZ estimated 55% on 2011-11-19
• Anubhav changed their prediction from “Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will be completed by 2014.” on 2012-04-09
• lavalamp estimated 55% on 2012-04-10
• Anubhav estimated 80% on 2012-04-10
• LauralH estimated 75% on 2012-04-11
• Ken estimated 60% on 2012-04-11
• JoshuaZ estimated 65% on 2012-04-11
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 12% and said “I don’t see this happening without either a significant increase in writing speed or a disappointing ending. Either of these are possible but not very likely.” on 2012-04-19
• Oscar_Cunningham estimated 80% on 2012-04-20
• Oscar_Cunningham estimated 80% on 2012-04-20
• Oscar_Cunningham said “Oops. Well, at least I’m consistent.” on 2012-04-20
• jesyspa estimated 30% and said “Feels like there’s too many loose ends to tie them up by then; seems like there’s more planned.” on 2012-05-13
• ygert estimated 40% on 2013-01-01
• gwern estimated 55% and said “adjusting for recent plot events” on 2013-06-30
• jaibot estimated 66% on 2013-07-02
• nigr estimated 99% on 2013-08-15
• a0c4a123f7 estimated 15% on 2013-11-10
• ygert   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-12-31.