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HP MoR: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will be completed by 2015.

Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2015-01-01.

  • Anubhav estimated 70% on 2011-11-19
  • Anubhav said “by 2013: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/4543 ; by 2014: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/4544 ” on 2011-11-19
  • kilobug estimated 60% on 2011-11-19
  • Mqrius estimated 40% on 2011-11-19
  • JoshuaZ estimated 62% on 2011-11-19
  • gwern estimated 65% and said “I think by this point EY would be so sick of MoR he’d either finish it or permanently abandon it.” on 2011-11-19
  • roshni estimated 25% and said “It seems EY will need to definite steps to motivate himself to work on it (the way MoR helped the rationality book). I rate the chance of that really low as the story doesn’t seem to be anywhere near its conclusion.” on 2011-11-23
  • chemotaxis101 estimated 60% on 2011-11-26
  • roshni estimated 70% on 2012-03-26
  • Anubhav changed their prediction from “Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will be completed by 2015.” on 2012-04-09
  • lavalamp estimated 75% on 2012-04-10
  • Anubhav estimated 99% on 2012-04-10
  • Ken estimated 75% on 2012-04-11
  • JoshuaZ estimated 80% on 2012-04-11
  • PlacidPlatypus estimated 40% and said “I consider abandoned not to count as completed.” on 2012-04-19
  • Oscar_Cunningham estimated 95% on 2012-04-20
  • jesyspa estimated 60% on 2012-05-13
  • Sarokrae estimated 90% on 2012-11-27
  • ygert estimated 60% on 2012-12-16
  • nigr estimated 100% on 2013-08-15
  • gwern estimated 50% and said “http://hpmor.com/notes/progress-14-07-01/ isn’t even going to start the last chapters until september, and he’s consistently overestimated how fast he’d work and whether he’d update” on 2014-07-02
  • papermachine estimated 60% on 2014-07-02
  • Jach estimated 60% on 2014-07-02
  • etarletons estimated 75% on 2014-07-05
  • gwern estimated 30% and said “see http://hpmor.com/notes/progress-14-09-01/” on 2014-09-04
  • Mati estimated 30% on 2014-09-04
  • from3004 estimated 70% and said “Adjusting for positive outcome bias” on 2014-10-16
  • roshni estimated 20% and said “2 more months, one final arc pending. Reducing earlier estimate. ” on 2014-10-26
  • sweeneyrod estimated 5% on 2014-12-14
  • holycow81 estimated 23% on 2014-12-15
  • Anubhav   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-01-01.