An announcement will be made before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2009 that 10,000+ additional troops will be sent to Afghanistan

Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.

  • InTrade estimated 78% on 2009-10-14
  • max   judged this prediction wrong on 2009-10-14.
  • max said “I marked you wrong only because that announcement was made TODAY. I think it’s cheating when the event has already taken place.on 2009-10-14
  • InTrade said “shrug I didn’t see the announcement, I was just quoting the market price Anyway, how’s it cheating? I lost Bayes points on the prediction.on 2009-10-14
  • InTrade   judged this prediction unknown on 2009-10-14.
  • InTrade estimated 75% on 2009-10-20
  • gwern estimated 100% and said “ 2010-07-29
  • gwern   judged this prediction right on 2010-07-29.

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