An announcement will be made before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2009 that 10,000+ additional troops will be sent to Afghanistan
- InTrade estimated 78% on 2009-10-14
- max judged this prediction wrong on 2009-10-14.
- max said “I marked you wrong only because that announcement was made TODAY. I think it’s cheating when the event has already taken place.” on 2009-10-14
- InTrade said “shrug I didn’t see the announcement, I was just quoting the market price Anyway, how’s it cheating? I lost Bayes points on the prediction.” on 2009-10-14
- InTrade judged this prediction unknown on 2009-10-14.
- InTrade estimated 75% on 2009-10-20
- gwern estimated 100% and said “http://online.wsj.com/article/NA_WSJ_PUB:SB125967363641871171.html” on 2010-07-29
- gwern judged this prediction right on 2010-07-29.
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