Jacob Zuma of ANC will not be re-elected to lead South Africa at Mangaung 2012. Julius Malema is his downfall, he shouldn't have sacked his liutenant rather he should have made peace with the king maker.

Created by general on 2011-11-19; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by D_Malik on 2012-12-18.

• general estimated 100% on 2011-11-19
• general changed the deadline from “on 2012-12-31” and changed their prediction from “Jacob Zuma of ANC will not be re-elected to lead South Africa at Mangaung 2012. Julius Malema is his downfall, he shouldnt have sacked his liutenant rather he should have made peace with the king maker.” on 2011-11-19
• general said “Jacob Zuma missed the target” on 2011-11-19
• JoshuaZ estimated 45% on 2011-11-19
• gwern estimated 55% and said “background: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jacob_Zuma mm, don’t know specifics, but incumbents tend to last. WP lists a hair-raising series of stuff that’ve ended his career in many countries” on 2011-11-19
• D_Malik estimated 60% on 2012-12-17
• D_Malik estimated 40% on 2012-12-17
• D_Malik   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-12-18.