I will pass the Institute of Actuaries' entry exam.

Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-20; known on 2012-02-15; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-02-10.

• Anubhav estimated 90% on 2011-11-20
• gwern estimated 80% on 2011-11-20
• Anubhav estimated 80% and said “My confidence in stuff like this tends to go down as the exam approaches. I think I have valid reasons this time (the study material is meh, etc) but not sure if they’re just a rationalisation.” on 2012-01-02
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 40% on 2012-01-18
• Anubhav estimated 95% and said “Just took the exam. Was hopelessly easy; I’ll be very surprised if I didn’t pass.” on 2012-01-29
• Jayson Virissimo said “Really? It isn’t everyday that you get raped by relying on base rates.” on 2012-01-29
• Anubhav said “What base rates? You do realise I’m talking about the Indian Institute of Actuaries, right?” on 2012-01-29
• gwern said “I didn’t!” on 2012-01-29
• Jayson Virissimo said “Uh……whoops.” on 2012-01-30
• Anubhav   judged this prediction right on 2012-02-10.