“Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150.” -lukeprog

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-20; known on 2150-01-01

  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 45% on 2011-11-20
  • fork said “You could say mankind currently exists in a form unlike its past form of 1850.on 2011-11-20
  • Jayson Virissimo said “You could say that, but it would be a stretch; especially if you add “anything” like the actual quote.on 2011-11-20
  • Anubhav said “Um… if we still have a bunch of (perhaps immortal) people (perhaps using brain implants instead of computers) living on the planet in physical forms… Does that count? What if they’re in a minority? This is just too subjective.on 2011-11-20
  • procran estimated 35% and said “I suppose this includes the probabilities of self annihilation as well as a singularity.on 2011-11-20
  • gwern estimated 65% and said “I’d go with either existential risk or singularity hereon 2011-11-20
  • JoshuaZ said “Would largescale genetic engineering count? If everyone had the ability to see in the infrared range that would probably be insufficient, but if everyone had wings and the dumbest people were as smart as Terry Tao… where’s the line? on 2011-11-20
  • bobpage estimated 90% on 2011-11-20
  • gwern said “if we really have to ask the question, then the prediction was probably falsifiedon 2011-11-20
  • fork said “I thought of that Jayson, but if you take ‘anything’ literally, then it’s too trivial.on 2011-11-20
  • RobertLumley said “I think you’d have to ask lukeprog to clarify exactly what he means by this…on 2011-11-21
  • procran estimated 60% on 2011-11-23
  • chemotaxis101 estimated 40% on 2011-11-26
  • TrE estimated 60% on 2011-11-29
  • roxton estimated 55% and said “The phrasing suggests the complete absence of small, traditionalist subcultures, which I find tough to swallow. But then, environmental considerations and food production may make the requisite isolation unattainable.on 2011-11-30
  • shokwave estimated 90% and said “I’m going on “its present form as the average human would describe it” not “as the average PBer would describe it”, we are already steeped in substrate independence and quantum self-identityon 2011-12-01
  • themusicgod1 estimated 100% on 2016-10-09
  • JoshuaZ estimated 62% on 2016-10-10
  • pranomostro estimated 80% on 2018-12-19
  • Baeboo estimated 83% on 2018-12-20

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