there will be a cure for AIDS by the year 2015

Created by sinyos on 2011-11-20; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-01.

• sinyos estimated 90% on 2011-11-20
• JoshuaZ said “There are a variety of different treatments now. Can you define more precisely what you mean by cure? ” on 2011-11-20
• gwern said “yeah. technically, there’s already a cure – nuke your entire immune system and transplant the immune system of someone naturally resistant. no more HIV! one person, 100% cured. but that’s not what you are thinking of…” on 2011-11-20
• sinyos changed the deadline from “on 2011-11-20” on 2011-11-20
• Nic_Smith said “Suppose DRACO works against HIV but isn’t medically available until after 2015 — would the claim be judged true or false?” on 2011-11-22
• Anubhav said “What worries me is that even predictions that sound as clear-cut as this one turn out to be ambiguous. I’m beginning to think we might need a separate page for each prediction where we hammer out the judgment criteria in more detail. ” on 2011-11-22
• shokwave said ““Judge this prediction” as a button that takes you to a page for hacking that out?” on 2011-11-24
• Anubhav said “Let’s decide whether having such pages is a good idea before debating where the link should be. :-/ ” on 2011-11-24
• gwern said “second possible cure, gengineering: https://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/29/health/new-hope-of-a-cure-for-hiv.html” on 2011-11-28
• kuudes   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-01-01.