Sarah Palin will not be the Republican nominee for president of the United States in 2012

Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-09-16; judged right by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-03.

• InTrade estimated 82% on 2009-10-14
• danb estimated 85% on 2009-10-14
• InTrade estimated 81% on 2009-10-14
• stephenh estimated 90% on 2009-10-15
• ChristianKl estimated 70% on 2009-10-15
• anonym   judged this prediction right on 2009-10-17.
• anonym   judged this prediction unknown on 2009-10-17.
• anonym estimated 75% on 2009-10-17
• Larks estimated 98% on 2009-10-17
• dshiller estimated 93% on 2009-10-20
• jes5199 estimated 95% on 2009-10-20
• freyley estimated 91% on 2009-10-21
• faws estimated 88% on 2009-10-22
• wasistdas estimated 40% on 2009-11-10
• Jack estimated 60% on 2009-11-16
• drewyallop estimated 95% on 2009-12-06
• gwern estimated 80% on 2010-07-29
• kallman estimated 85% and said “Though, we can only hope.” on 2010-11-23
• gwern estimated 10% on 2010-11-26
• gwern estimated 90% on 2010-11-26
• stephenh estimated 75% and said “Revising downward based on her continuing popularity.” on 2010-12-11
• Larks estimated 70% on 2011-01-01
• JoshuaZ estimated 85% on 2011-05-24
• Sandra Åhlén estimated 75% on 2011-07-14
• Jack estimated 95% on 2011-08-31
• JoshuaZ said “She has now officially said she isn’t going to run? Can we mark this judged now or should we weight for the official nomination? ” on 2011-10-07
• ka estimated 99% on 2011-11-02
• NathanMcKnight estimated 95% on 2011-11-12
• NathanMcKnight   judged this prediction right on 2012-09-03.