WTI Oil front month (96 US$ today) will go lower and reach 50 US$ by the end of 2012

Created by herb on 2011-11-21; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-12-31.

• herb estimated 60% on 2011-11-21
• torekp estimated 20% and said “Go lower, sure; $50, no.” on 2011-11-21
• gwern estimated 45% and said “what is this betting on, even lower economic growth? china cratering?” on 2011-11-21
• herb said “More exploitable oil and gas has been discovered in the last five years than in the previous fifty, Peak Oil is a myth combine it with an election year and lower demand (recession). Plus oil has an agressive way to trend (look back to 2008).” on 2011-11-22
• JoshuaZ estimated 15% and said “Most of the recent exploitable oil is more difficult to obtain (e.g. farther from shore, deeper) and sometimes of lower quality. This amounts to predicting either massive tech breakthrough in a short time or economic collapse. ” on 2011-11-22
• Isaac estimated 20% on 2011-12-11
• gwern said “http://markets.ft.com/research/Markets/Tearsheets/Summary?s=1070572 hasn’t ever gone near $50, so this is wrong however you slice it” on 2011-12-31
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-12-31.
• herb said “Are we in 2013 ;)” on 2012-01-02
• Anubhav   judged this prediction unknown on 2012-01-02.
• Anubhav said “Wrong due date, herb.” on 2012-01-02
• herb changed the deadline from “on 2011-12-31” on 2012-01-14
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-12-31.