Bayesian Induction will be proven to be merely a special case of analogical reasoning by 2014

Created by mjgeddes on 2009-10-14; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-01-08.

• mjgeddes estimated 50% on 2009-10-14
• Jack estimated 10% on 2009-10-14
• othercriteria estimated 5% on 2009-10-15
• anonym   judged this prediction wrong on 2009-10-17.
• anonym   judged this prediction unknown on 2009-10-17.
• anonym estimated 5% on 2009-10-17
• gwern said “I don’t know how one could even judge this.” on 2010-09-28
• gwern said “haven’t heard anything vaguely similar, so I guess I’ll just mark it wrong…” on 2014-01-08
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2014-01-08.