“Orkut to be merged with Google Plus in the near future” —Chris Jolley

Created by gwern on 2011-11-23; known on 2013-11-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-11-23.

• gwern estimated 40% on 2011-11-23
• gwern said “https://plus.google.com/102358848626619677590/posts/6aGJPcH9yuq” on 2011-11-23
• roshni estimated 50% on 2011-11-23
• Nic_Smith estimated 45% and said “I had forgotten about Orkut.” on 2011-11-23
• Anubhav estimated 20% and said “Google isn’t that coordinated. ” on 2011-11-23
• gwern estimated 45% and said “shifting upward, pondering my predictive failure in http://www.gwern.net/Wikipedia%20and%20Knol#chronicle-of-a-death-foretold” on 2011-11-23
• chemotaxis101 estimated 50% on 2011-11-26
• shokwave estimated 25% on 2011-11-26
• Grognor estimated 50% on 2011-12-06
• RandomThinker estimated 25% on 2012-03-06
• saturn estimated 20% on 2012-03-28
• PseudonymousUser estimated 1% and said “not happening in the net week” on 2013-11-15
• PseudonymousUser said “s/net/next/” on 2013-11-15
• fela estimated 28% on 2013-11-19
• gwern said “no mention in Wikipedia of a merge. marking wrong.” on 2013-11-23
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-11-23.