Amazon will dominate Android appstores —Marco Arment

Created by gwern on 2011-11-23; known on 2013-11-23; judged wrong by kpreid on 2013-11-23.

• gwern estimated 15% on 2011-11-23
• gwern said “based on http://www.marco.org/2011/11/22/amazon-stole-the-android-app-market – eg. “Most Android developers, therefore, need to ensure that their app is available in the Amazon Appstore.” judge by simple majority of app installs” on 2011-11-23
• gwern said “I am skeptical. Amazon does not dominate for music, or programs. it may dominate for ebooks, but that’s an extension of books. kindle fire has not caught on fire, from early reports, and amazon brings nothing like iphone to the table” on 2011-11-23
• gwern said “HN discussion: http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3268337” on 2011-11-23
• gwern said “a relevant example of current Amazon developer support: https://shiftyjelly.wordpress.com/2011/08/02/amazon-app-store-rotten-to-the-core/” on 2011-11-23
• kpreid estimated 10% on 2011-12-04
• kpreid   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-11-23.