A lot of people will be surprised by a new ILS Mortgage and a new Investment for Pension Funds when it happens before June 2012. This will stop people from worrying about interest and inflation rates as far as these new products are concerned.
Created by EdwardCDIngram on 2011-11-23; known on 2012-06-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-06-04.
- EdwardCDIngram estimated 99% on 2011-11-23
- gwern said “Ingram, this reads like spam. there’s no clear judgement, it’s promotional, and your confidence is way too high. If you aren’t going to use PB as intended…” on 2011-11-23
- Anubhav said “Reads like a clear example of planning fallacy. Also, he’s probably not aware of the conjunction fallacy and hasn’t realised how subjective his predictions are; he’s just putting them down in the same terms that he thinks of them.” on 2011-11-24
- Anubhav said “<cotd> In other words, he’s a <gasp> normal person! Aren’t gentle explanations and links to EY’s posts called for here, rather than “bring down the banhammer on the spammer”? ” on 2011-11-24
- Anubhav said “Although it does worry me that someone so obviously probability illiterate is designing mortgages and stuff… ” on 2011-11-24
- Anubhav said “I retract my rant after looking at his website. Bring down the banhammer on the spammer! ” on 2011-11-24
- gwern said “we don’t really have a banhammer. I can mark all his prediction private, but I was hoping he might reform his ways if it was just explained to him a little bit” on 2011-11-24
- Anubhav said “This is the guy who posts a cumulative frequency graph on his website and captions it with ‘interest in these concepts is increasing’. I think he’s too far gone for reform. ” on 2011-11-25
- EdwardCDIngram said “Well thanks guys – in fact I failed to meet the deadline. ” on 2012-06-04
- PseudonymousUser judged this prediction wrong on 2012-06-04.