Civil conflict will break out in the US by the end of 2011.

Created by max on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-03.

• max estimated 80% on 2009-10-14
• max   judged this prediction right on 2009-10-14.
• Jack   judged this prediction wrong on 2009-10-14.
• Jack   judged this prediction unknown on 2009-10-14.
• Jack estimated 10% on 2009-10-14
• Sofa   judged this prediction wrong on 2009-10-14.
• Jack   judged this prediction unknown on 2009-10-14.
• mjgeddes estimated 5% on 2009-10-15
• ChristianKl said “How will it be measured? What counts as civil conflict?” on 2009-10-15
• anonym   judged this prediction wrong on 2009-10-17.
• anonym   judged this prediction unknown on 2009-10-17.
• anonym estimated 10% on 2009-10-17
• Larks estimated 1% on 2009-10-17
• VoiceOfAuthority estimated 5% on 2009-12-31
• gwern estimated 1% on 2010-09-28
• Larks estimated 1% on 2010-09-29
• gimpf estimated 1% on 2010-12-13
• PseudonymousUser said “OWS is not a civil conflict” on 2012-01-03
• PseudonymousUser   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-01-03.
• gwern said “Strongly agree; OWS is nowhere close.” on 2012-01-03