My chart will settle into a pattern of moderate underconfidence (each point's accuracy between 20% and 10% above confidence)

Created by shokwave on 2011-11-25; known on 2012-05-25; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-08-28.

• shokwave estimated 80% on 2011-11-25
• torekp estimated 35% and said “Despite your self-administered incentive to keep botching it, I’m betting on self-correction.” on 2011-11-29
• PseudonymousUser said “You can’t be 120% accurate” on 2011-11-29
• Grognor said “overconfidence is betting too far against base rates, not necessarily against 50%. you can’t measure that effectively. I suggest withdrawing the prediction eh what” on 2012-04-07
• gwern said “looking at your chart – no way. 3 deciles are overconfident, and 1 is way way underconfident. marking wrong.” on 2012-08-28
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-08-28.