Mitt Romney will be the next President of the United States. He will win the Republican nomination and win the general election in 2012.

Created by capcuervo on 2011-11-26; known on 2012-11-07; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-11-07.

• capcuervo estimated 70% on 2011-11-26
• gwern estimated 25% and said “so what your probability for him winning the republican nomination? and then the probability of being president conditional on nomination?” on 2011-11-27
• RobertLumley estimated 35% on 2011-11-27
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 33% on 2011-11-27
• PseudonymousUser estimated 28% on 2011-11-27
• JoshuaZ estimated 26% on 2011-11-27
• JoshuaZ said “capcuervo, you’ve estimated 70% on this, 30% on prediction 4143 . This implies 100% on Obama or Romney winning but on 4163 you give only 95%. 4143 + this implies P(Democrats will control house and senate|Obama wins) as close to 1? ” on 2011-11-27
• herb estimated 25% on 2011-11-28
• chemotaxis101 estimated 30% on 2011-12-02
• saturn estimated 12% on 2011-12-11
• Tiresias estimated 35% on 2011-12-20
• endoself estimated 22% on 2011-12-22
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-11-07.