Carrie Fisher will die before Harrison Ford.

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-28; known on 2040-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-12-28.

• JoshuaZ estimated 55% on 2011-11-28
• JoshuaZ said “Prediction result of discussion about http://xkcd.com/493/ She is younger but has a history of drug problems, mental health issues, and health problems. ” on 2011-11-28
• JoshuaZ changed their prediction from “Carrie Fisher will die before Harrison Ford/.” on 2011-11-28
• gwern estimated 35% and said “she’s 55, he’s 69. you think the history of health problems overcomes 14 year difference + the female longevity advantage?” on 2011-11-28
• JoshuaZ said “I’m not sure. Before posting I failed to find data on life expectancy for former drug addicts. There’s a lot of life expectancy for addicts which would put her in the grave nowish or earlier, but she’s been clean for a while. ” on 2011-11-29
• JoshuaZ said “But she’s also had relapses and has a history of mental health issues, and is now dealing with fluctuating weight levels. In contrast, Ford is by all accounts in very good shape. ” on 2011-11-29
• Anubhav estimated 60% on 2011-11-29
• RobertLumley estimated 45% on 2011-11-29
• Malgidus estimated 40% on 2013-03-27
• JoshuaZ estimated 44% and said “Updating since her health has apparently been more or less fine fairly recently. Moving closer to what one would expect based gwern’s logic. ” on 2015-10-24
• themusicgod1 estimated 47% on 2016-10-09
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction right on 2016-12-28.
• JoshuaZ said “Well, that prediction came due much earlier than expected. ” on 2016-12-28