Generic molecular assemblers won't be developed within the next 20 years. By “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don't come from bulk chemistry.

Created by bogdanb on 2009-10-14; known on 2029-10-14

• bogdanb estimated 80% on 2009-10-14
• bogdanb changed their prediction from “Generic molecular assemblers won't be developed within the next 20 years. By “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects (and smaller) that can perform any reasonable (for their size) function, and by “molecular” meaning more than 5” on 2009-10-14
• bogdanb changed their prediction from “Generic molecular assemblers won't be developed within the next 20 years. By “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds were not obtained by bulk chemis” on 2009-10-14
• Arenamontanus estimated 30% on 2009-10-14
• ChristianKl estimated 80% on 2009-10-15
• faws estimated 90% on 2009-10-22
• freyley estimated 85% on 2009-10-22
• gwern estimated 95% on 2010-10-17
• TheScholar estimated 95% on 2010-10-18
• pranomostro estimated 96% on 2018-11-25
• Baeboo estimated 20% on 2018-12-12
• deleteyourbrain estimated 100% on 2019-04-26