Generic molecular assemblers won't be developed within the next 20 years. By “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don't come from bulk chemistry.

Created by bogdanb on 2009-10-14; known on 2029-10-14

  • bogdanb estimated 80% on 2009-10-14
  • bogdanb changed their prediction from “Generic molecular assemblers won't be developed within the next 20 years. By “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects (and smaller) that can perform any reasonable (for their size) function, and by “molecular” meaning more than 5” on 2009-10-14
  • bogdanb changed their prediction from “Generic molecular assemblers won't be developed within the next 20 years. By “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds were not obtained by bulk chemis” on 2009-10-14
  • Arenamontanus estimated 30% on 2009-10-14
  • ChristianKl estimated 80% on 2009-10-15
  • faws estimated 90% on 2009-10-22
  • freyley estimated 85% on 2009-10-22
  • gwern estimated 95% on 2010-10-17
  • TheScholar estimated 95% on 2010-10-18
  • pranomostro estimated 96% on 2018-11-25
  • Baeboo estimated 20% on 2018-12-12
  • deleteyourbrain estimated 100% on 2019-04-26

Please log in to respond to or judge prediction