Grognor will hold a meetup at his university by the end of January 2012, and me & drethelin will donate $10 to charity as agreed in #lesswrong

Created by gwern on 2011-11-30; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-01.

• gwern estimated 35% on 2011-11-30
• gwern said “first part of conditional: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/4705” on 2011-11-30
• gwern said “payment plan: me and drethelin will flip a coin (random.org?) and the loser will pay $10 to charity (minimize overhead)” on 2011-11-30
• gwern changed their prediction from “Grogor will hold a meetup at his university by the end of January 2012, and me & drethelin will donate $10 to charity as agreed in #lesswrong” on 2011-11-30
• drethelin estimated 29% on 2011-11-30
• saturn estimated 4% on 2011-12-11
• Grognor estimated 0% and said “too depressed” on 2012-01-18
• PseudonymousUser estimated 3% on 2012-01-19
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-02-01.