Grognor will host a meetup at his university by the end of January 2012, and I will successfully convince either gwern or drethelin that I attended Grognor's meetup.

Created by papermachine on 2011-11-30; known on 2012-02-15; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-01.

• papermachine estimated 5% on 2011-11-30
• gwern estimated 10% and said “I can be a pretty gullible guy sometimes” on 2011-11-30
• PseudonymousUser estimated 3% on 2011-12-01
• saturn estimated 2% on 2011-12-11
• gwern said “hm, I’m not convinced it happened or you attended, so might as well mark this wrong” on 2012-02-01
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-02-01.