General consensus among mathematicians that 2, 3, 5 and 7 are prime numbers will not change in the next year.
Created by bogdanb on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-10-14; judged right by jasticE on 2010-10-14.
- bogdanb estimated 100% on 2009-10-14
- rwallace estimated 100% on 2009-10-14
- Laurent Bossavit estimated 100% on 2009-10-14
- Drahflow estimated 100% on 2009-10-14
- Thom Blake judged this prediction right on 2009-10-14.
- JamesMiller said “99.999%” on 2009-10-14
- Jack judged this prediction unknown on 2009-10-14.
- Jack estimated 100% and said “James, does that mean you think it is more likely that this prediction is wrong than that you will win the lottery (if you play)?” on 2009-10-14
- Arenamontanus estimated 100% on 2009-10-14
- Jonii judged this prediction right on 2009-10-15.
- Matt judged this prediction unknown on 2009-10-15.
- jes5199 estimated 100% on 2009-10-15
- othercriteria judged this prediction right on 2009-10-15.
- othercriteria judged this prediction unknown on 2009-10-15.
- othercriteria estimated 100% on 2009-10-15
- im said “Why can’t I enter a probability strictly between 99 and 100? 100% probability is a dangerous thing.” on 2009-10-15
- AnonymousCoward judged this prediction right on 2009-10-15.
- anonym judged this prediction unknown on 2009-10-17.
- anonym estimated 100% on 2009-10-17
- comboy estimated 100% and said “99.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999” on 2009-10-17
- jasticE estimated 100% on 2009-10-17
- Larks estimated 99% on 2009-10-17
- TheScholar estimated 100% on 2009-10-17
- Robin Z. said “The likelihood associated with this claim cannot be accurately described with only two significant figures. Odds against this are much, much less than 1%.” on 2009-10-17
- trismet estimated 100% on 2009-10-17
- btud judged this prediction right on 2009-10-17.
- btud said “99.99999….(many nines)….999” on 2009-10-17
- Larks judged this prediction unknown on 2009-10-18.
- Jack said “Robin, 99.99… rounds to 100. Just like 18.99 rounds to 19. Extremely high or low certainty doesn’t inherently require more exactness.” on 2009-10-19
- VoiceOfAuthority judged this prediction right on 2009-10-19.
- Larks judged this prediction unknown on 2009-10-19.
- taiyo estimated 100% on 2009-10-20
- Chance estimated 100% and said “100-10^-20” on 2009-10-20
- archgoon estimated 100% on 2009-10-20
- freyley estimated 100% on 2009-10-21
- Martin Chase estimated 100% on 2009-10-22
- faws estimated 100% on 2009-10-22
- Tobias estimated 100% on 2009-10-26
- im estimated 100% and said “100% is just an approximation of “closer to 100% than 99%”.” on 2009-10-29
- ssowle estimated 100% on 2009-10-31
- wasistdas judged this prediction right on 2009-11-10.
- Laurent Bossavit judged this prediction unknown on 2009-11-12.
- elefevre estimated 100% on 2009-11-12
- gwern estimated 100% and said “echo others; why not let us input arbitrary reals?” on 2010-07-29
- Jennifer estimated 100% on 2010-09-29
- jasticE judged this prediction right on 2010-10-14.