The US will be at war with Iran by 2014

Created by Isaac on 2011-12-01; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.

• Isaac estimated 20% on 2011-12-01
• gwern said “define ‘at war’, the US hasn’t declared war since WWII. would one bombing raid in 2013 count? a spec-ops raid on a facility? an Israeli bombing campaign?” on 2011-12-01
• Isaac said “A major war under this definition: http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/war/index.html i.e. At least 1000 deaths per year” on 2011-12-01
• gwern estimated 10% and said “hm an ongoing war like that? no, I don’t think the US is stupid enough to do that. at most a short intervention like libya, which you say would not count.” on 2011-12-02
• chemotaxis101 estimated 5% on 2011-12-02
• fork estimated 10% on 2011-12-03
• musichunch estimated 5% and said “Would give 25% than ANY country will be at war with Iran.” on 2011-12-05
• smijer estimated 5% on 2012-01-10
• kish estimated 97% on 2012-01-15
• faws estimated 6% on 2012-01-15
• JoshuaZ estimated 12% on 2012-01-15
• Isaac said “Hmm, I wonder if this makes it more likely or less likely: http://articles.businessinsider.com/2012-04-09/news/31311454_1_russian-defense-ministry-military-action-dmitry-rogozin” on 2012-04-15
• RandomThinker estimated 10% on 2012-04-15
• ygert   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-12-31.