Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years.

Created by bogdanb on 2009-10-14; known on 2019-10-14; judged right by rwallace on 2019-10-15.

• bogdanb estimated 99% on 2009-10-14
• rwallace   judged this prediction right on 2009-10-14.
• rwallace   judged this prediction unknown on 2009-10-14.
• rwallace estimated 100% on 2009-10-14
• danb estimated 91% on 2009-10-14
• tommccabe estimated 90% on 2009-10-14
• Jack estimated 95% on 2009-10-14
• VanVeen   judged this prediction right on 2009-10-14.
• Matt   judged this prediction unknown on 2009-10-14.
• mjgeddes estimated 80% on 2009-10-15
• im estimated 75% on 2009-10-15
• gzero   judged this prediction right on 2009-10-15.
• anonym   judged this prediction unknown on 2009-10-17.
• anonym   judged this prediction right on 2009-10-17.
• anonym   judged this prediction unknown on 2009-10-17.
• anonym estimated 65% on 2009-10-17
• gwern estimated 95% on 2010-09-27
• themusicgod1 said “as measured by… ?DeepMind is getting pretty generic.” on 2016-10-06
• Baeboo estimated 89% on 2017-11-25
• Baeboo estimated 97% on 2017-11-25
• Baeboo estimated 93% on 2018-02-07
• pranomostro estimated 98% on 2018-11-25
• Baeboo estimated 98% on 2018-11-26
• deleteyourbrain estimated 0% on 2019-04-26
• Pablo estimated 100% on 2019-10-13
• Bruno Parga   judged this prediction right on 2019-10-15.
• rwallace   judged this prediction right on 2019-10-15.