The new Silk Road URL will be revealed to be a scam/phishing/law enforcement one.

Created by gwern on 2011-12-02; known on 2012-12-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-02.

gwern estimated 20% on 2011-12-02
gwern said “old URL: http://ianxz6zefk72ulzz.onion/ new URL: http://silkroadvb5piz3r.onion ANN: http://dkn255hz262ypmii.onion/index.php?topic=6235.msg53965#msg53965” on 2011-12-02
Jach estimated 10% on 2011-12-02
PseudonymousUser estimated 9% and said “renaming announcement is signed with a key first used in June 2011, so my 9% is “they turned the owner at around the same time of the renaming”” on 2011-12-03
Anubhav estimated 10% on 2011-12-03
chemotaxis101 estimated 15% on 2011-12-06
Serge estimated 10% on 2011-12-06
gwern said “so far no reason to think it. marking wrong.” on 2012-12-02
gwern judged this prediction wrong on 2012-12-02.
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