Between now and 2022, a religion, subsect, or religious movement will be founded and grow to over 10,000 followers that has explicit ties to Judaism/Christianity/Islam, but rejects the omnipotence of God.

Created by HonoreDB on 2011-12-03; known on 2022-01-01

  • HonoreDB estimated 12% on 2011-12-03
  • HonoreDB said “Not planning on doing this myself, but my feeling is that there’s an unfilled niche market for traditional Western religion without the logical burden of theodicy.on 2011-12-03
  • gwern said “as opposed to Unitarianism?on 2011-12-03
  • Grognor estimated 4% and said “implicit assumption: this will be discoverable. also just seems a priori unlikely.on 2011-12-04
  • HonoreDB said “Distinct from Unitarianian Universalism in that it will have a creed.on 2011-12-04
  • chemotaxis101 estimated 10% on 2011-12-06
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 1% on 2011-12-06
  • gwern said “not voting on this one because the definitional issues are huge. I certainly wouldn’t put 1 or 10%… new sects are founded all the timeon 2011-12-06
  • HonoreDB said “Gwern, you seem to be reading “rejects the omnipotence of God” differently from how I meant it, and from how other people seem to be reading it. A sect that fits the description would both:on 2011-12-06
  • HonoreDB said “1) Have a doctrine that explicitly restricts God’s power, like “God needs our prayers or He can’t perform miracles” and 2) Does not also assert God’s omnipotence.on 2011-12-06
  • themusicgod1 estimated 47% and said “new sects are founded all the time, 10,000 might happen in 2 years. I don’t see survival advantage to meme/group/individual to deny omnipotence though.on 2016-10-09
  • Bruno Parga said “This tweet is not nearly evidence enough, but it is funny nonetheless, and it suggests that maybe you could have 10,000 antivaxxers implicitly rejecting omnipotence: 2022-01-01

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