Between now and 2022, a religion, subsect, or religious movement will be founded and grow to over 10,000 followers that has explicit ties to Judaism/Christianity/Islam, but rejects the omnipotence of God.

Created by HonoreDB on 2011-12-03; known on 2022-01-01

• HonoreDB estimated 12% on 2011-12-03
• HonoreDB said “Not planning on doing this myself, but my feeling is that there’s an unfilled niche market for traditional Western religion without the logical burden of theodicy.” on 2011-12-03
• gwern said “as opposed to Unitarianism?” on 2011-12-03
• Grognor estimated 4% and said “implicit assumption: this will be discoverable. also just seems a priori unlikely.” on 2011-12-04
• HonoreDB said “Distinct from Unitarianian Universalism in that it will have a creed.” on 2011-12-04
• chemotaxis101 estimated 10% on 2011-12-06
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 1% on 2011-12-06
• gwern said “not voting on this one because the definitional issues are huge. I certainly wouldn’t put 1 or 10%… new sects are founded all the time” on 2011-12-06
• HonoreDB said “Gwern, you seem to be reading “rejects the omnipotence of God” differently from how I meant it, and from how other people seem to be reading it. A sect that fits the description would both:” on 2011-12-06
• HonoreDB said “1) Have a doctrine that explicitly restricts God’s power, like “God needs our prayers or He can’t perform miracles” and 2) Does not also assert God’s omnipotence.” on 2011-12-06
• themusicgod1 estimated 47% and said “new sects are founded all the time, 10,000 might happen in 2 years. I don’t see survival advantage to meme/group/individual to deny omnipotence though.” on 2016-10-09
• Bruno Parga said “This tweet is not nearly evidence enough, but it is funny nonetheless, and it suggests that maybe you could have 10,000 antivaxxers implicitly rejecting omnipotence: https://twitter.com/DarkSageMystic/status/1462187347210948611” on 2022-01-01