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Jimmy Wales and/or the WMF and/or any of its employees will be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize within 34 years.

Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2045-12-04

  • gwern estimated 20% on 2011-12-04
  • gwern said “really covering my bases here with the inclusion criteria :)” on 2011-12-04
  • gwern said “orgs can win; see the 2007 precedent of Al Gore + IPCC” on 2011-12-04
  • gwern said “the 34 year deadline is derived from a basic actuarial life table for wales, BTW, since Nobels aren’t post-houmus” on 2011-12-04
  • Anubhav estimated 30% and said “posthumous* ” on 2011-12-04
  • JoshuaZ estimated 15% on 2011-12-04
  • chemotaxis101 estimated 15% on 2011-12-06
  • RobertLumley estimated 40% on 2011-12-07
  • themusicgod1 estimated 53% on 2016-10-09
  • JoshuaZ estimated 12% on 2016-10-10
  • pranomostro estimated 20% on 2018-12-19
  • JoshuaZ estimated 12% on 2018-12-19