lukeprog will make >2 predictions on PB during 2012.

Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-09-04.

• gwern estimated 60% on 2011-12-04
• gwern said “think he made the prediction he did solely to annoy the prediction that he would make no predictions” on 2011-12-04
• Jayson Virissimo said “Predicting that high profile Less Wrongers wouldn’t make a prediction was the best way I could think of to get them to make a prediction.” on 2011-12-04
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 65% and said “Now that lukeprog has an account and knows how to use it, the startup energy required to make a new prediction is diminished, thus raising the probability he will make another prediction.” on 2011-12-04
• PseudonymousUser estimated 60% on 2011-12-04
• Anubhav estimated 60% on 2011-12-04
• muflax estimated 70% and said “2012 is long and I expect at least on more poke” on 2011-12-04
• JoshuaZ estimated 65% on 2011-12-04
• Grognor estimated 55% on 2011-12-06
• faws estimated 80% on 2011-12-19
• PseudonymousUser   judged this prediction right on 2012-09-04.