Alcor's Patient Trust Fund will be solvent in 2021.

Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2021-01-02.

• gwern estimated 95% on 2011-12-04
• gwern said “basically only real risk is fraud/embezzlement on this short time-horizon. not sure even hyper-inflation would kill it” on 2011-12-04
• JoshuaZ estimated 92% on 2011-12-04
• papermachine estimated 60% and said “Not as optimistic about the lack of fraud/embezzlement.” on 2011-12-05
• themusicgod1 estimated 63% on 2016-10-09
• JoshuaZ said “Seems to be the case, but waiting a few days to judge just in case. ” on 2021-01-01
• gwern said “I haven’t heard of anything going wrong with it. If it turns out in a few months it was secretly embezzled, we can change the judging.” on 2021-01-02
• gwern   judged this prediction right on 2021-01-02.