Logos01 will commit suicide in 5 years.

Created by gwern on 2011-12-05; known on 2016-12-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-12-05.

• gwern estimated 0% on 2011-12-05
• saturn estimated 0% on 2011-12-11
• fergus estimated 1% on 2011-12-13
• JoshuaZ said “What caused this hypothesis to be located? ” on 2011-12-13
• gwern said “was suggested by someone else” on 2011-12-13
• PseudonymousUser estimated 1% and said “assuming within 5 years” on 2011-12-14
• JoshuaZ estimated 0% on 2011-12-14
• JoshuaZ said “No indication of suicidal tendencies in any posts I can see. And of those with such tendencies only a small fraction attempt suicide. Large fraction of attempts are unsuccessful. ” on 2011-12-14
• Leo estimated 0% and said “From male US suicide rate.” on 2012-01-26
• Tuxedage estimated 0% on 2013-01-30
• themusicgod1 estimated 6% on 2016-10-09
• two2thehead estimated 0% on 2016-11-23
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-12-05.