The Bitcoin price will hit 4 $/฿ in December 2011.
Created by Mqrius on 2011-12-07; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by Mqrius on 2011-12-20.
- Mqrius estimated 70% on 2011-12-07
- gwern estimated 65% on 2011-12-07
- fergus estimated 50% on 2011-12-13
- PseudonymousUser estimated 50% on 2011-12-14
- tuna estimated 5% on 2011-12-17
- gwern said “mtgox graph says peaked at ~4.5 btc/$ on december 3rd. anyone want to check so we can mark this right?” on 2011-12-17
- PseudonymousUser said “This prediction was created Dec 7, which hopefully implies an exclusion of Dec 3” on 2011-12-18
- gwern said “what makes you think Mqrius checked? he neither gave it 100% or a small probability or specified a narrower range.” on 2011-12-18
- PseudonymousUser said “I’m just assuming competence (or retroactive pretended competence), though I don’t care enough about this prediction to argue about what Mqrius meant.” on 2011-12-18
- Mqrius said “I don’t see the spike on mtgox.com, or on bitcoincharts.com. On 7 December I was fairly certain it had not been above 4 for quite a while, especially as everyone was saying “if it ever breaks 4, it might start a large rally.”” on 2011-12-18
- gwern said “OK, never mind – rechecked mtgox and then bitcoincharts.com; the latter doesn’t show it and the former changed its graphs completely so I can’t even refind the spike!” on 2011-12-18
- PseudonymousUser said “Weird. I’m pretty sure I saw the spike that gwern saw, but I have no records of it.” on 2011-12-18
- Mqrius said “Weird indeed. Let’s assume it was a glitch. If I had seen it, I would either have stated a different estimation, or a different wording of the prediction.” on 2011-12-18
- gwern said “mtgox currently recording a high of 3.989!” on 2011-12-20
- Mqrius judged this prediction right on 2011-12-20.
- Mqrius said “4.5 high tonight :)” on 2011-12-20
- Mqrius said “Followup: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/4927” on 2011-12-20