France to lose AAA credit rating before midnight ET 30 Jun 2012 —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2011-12-08; known on 2012-07-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-13.

• gwern estimated 25% on 2011-12-08
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=754748” on 2011-12-08
• PseudonymousUser estimated 60% on 2011-12-08
• JoshuaZ estimated 32% on 2011-12-08
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 65% on 2011-12-10
• gwern estimated 50% and said “haven’t thought much about it, deferring to intrade at 63%” on 2011-12-11
• tuna   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-12-17.
• gwern   judged this prediction unknown on 2011-12-17.
• PseudonymousUser said “intrade is at 99.9% and http://money.cnn.com/2012/01/13/markets/sandp_europe_downgrade/index.htm?hpt=hp_t1” on 2012-01-13
• PseudonymousUser   judged this prediction right on 2012-01-13.