“[Hillary] Clinton will be Obama's running mate”
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-12-10; known on 2012-09-03; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-09-03.
- PseudonymousUser estimated 5% on 2011-12-10
- PseudonymousUser said “predicted by reddit user ‘Subduction’ at http://www.reddit.com/r/politics/comments/n6i3t/hillary_clinton_on_the_internet_to_use_an/c36oazd” on 2011-12-10
- PseudonymousUser said “Clinton denial: http://blogs.suntimes.com/sweet/2011/10/hillary_clinton_no_way_obamas_.html” on 2011-12-10
- PseudonymousUser said “Biden already asked to run: http://articles.nydailynews.com/2010-10-13/news/27078101_1_vice-president-joe-biden-president-obama-foreign-policy” on 2011-12-10
- Jayson Virissimo estimated 1% on 2011-12-10
- gwern estimated 5% and said “Biden is an ass.” on 2011-12-10
- RobertLumley estimated 5% on 2011-12-10
- JoshuaZ estimated 3% on 2011-12-10
- NathanMcKnight estimated 8% on 2011-12-20
- Tiresias estimated 2% on 2011-12-20
- RobertLumley estimated 5% on 2011-12-20
- RobertLumley said “Oh whoops. I already predicted on this… Is there anyway you can remove that as an admin gwern?” on 2011-12-20
- gwern said “just your prediction? no. but if it’s the same percentage, no big deal” on 2011-12-20
- RobertLumley said “Yeah, I just don’t want to get credit for it twice. Oh well.” on 2011-12-21
- faws said “In as far as you would get the credit twice you also take the risk twice. Just think of it as betiting twice as much as everyone else. ” on 2011-12-21
- faws estimated 4% and said “12% chance of Biden being unable to run (death, health reasons, scandal), 30% chance conditional on Biden being unavailable? ” on 2011-12-21
- RandomThinker estimated 10% on 2012-06-10
- chimpsky estimated 3% on 2012-06-10
- JoshuaZ estimated 4% on 2012-06-11
- sucrenoir estimated 0% on 2012-07-02
- PseudonymousUser judged this prediction wrong on 2012-09-03.
- RandomThinker said “Closer than we might have realized:http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2013/10/31/double_down_joe_biden_hillary_clinton_game_change_sequal_reveals_just_how.html” on 2013-11-01
- JoshuaZ said “Yeah, was right there but in retrospect that was a bad calibration by a lot of us. ” on 2013-11-01