Harvard's yield for the class of 2016 will be 76% or below.

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-12-11; known on 2012-05-20; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-05-20.

• JoshuaZ estimated 55% on 2011-12-11
• JoshuaZ said “Currently at 77% for 2015 http://www.thecrimson.com/article/2011/5/12/class-percent-fitzsimmons-year/ ” on 2011-12-11
• JoshuaZ said “Expect a drop due to the closing of the Yard which makes the environment much less friendly feeling for prefrosh. ” on 2011-12-11
• gwern estimated 45% and said “does that really matter that much? it’s harvard and we’re looking at noisy metrics here” on 2011-12-11
• JoshuaZ said “If assume noise is the overriding factor then a close 50% chance of a drop by a percentage point seems by itself reasonable. So move a little bit in the direction one expects some movement. ” on 2011-12-12
• JoshuaZ said “http://www.thecrimson.com/article/2012/5/10/admissions-yield-2016-action/ went up to 81 percent. Did not see that coming. ” on 2012-05-20
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-05-20.