A law that creates some form of Internet blacklist which requires search engines or ISPs to block specific sites will be passed in the USA before 2014

Created by saturn on 2011-12-13; known on 2014-01-02; judged wrong by saturn on 2014-01-04.

• saturn estimated 40% on 2011-12-13
• Anubhav estimated 60% on 2011-12-13
• Serge estimated 60% and said “Though ‘some form of Internet blacklist’ sounds a bit vague to me.” on 2011-12-13
• gwern said “yeah, this is too vague for me.” on 2011-12-13
• saturn changed the deadline from “on 2014-01-01” and changed their prediction from “A law that creates some form of Internet blacklist will be passed in the USA before 2014” on 2011-12-13
• saturn said “Is that better? I didn’t want to limit it to a particular bill in case a different but similar bill is passed.” on 2011-12-13
• fergus estimated 70% on 2011-12-13
• tuna estimated 0% and said “I could see a federal agency having control over the switch.” on 2011-12-17
• tuna   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-12-17.
• gwern   judged this prediction unknown on 2011-12-17.
• saturn said “I don’t understand your comment, tuna.” on 2011-12-19
• saturn   judged this prediction wrong on 2014-01-04.