The Dow will close under 8,000 (in Oct. 2009 dollars) before Dec. 31st, 2010.

Created by tommccabe on 2009-10-14; known on 2011-01-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-01-16.

• tommccabe estimated 80% on 2009-10-14
• refragable estimated 60% on 2009-10-28
• othercriteria estimated 60% on 2009-10-29
• gwern estimated 10% on 2010-07-30
• gwern said “Is this prediction ‘the dow on dec 31 will close <8k’ or ‘at any time between oct 2009 and 31 dec 2010, the dow will be at <8k’?” on 2010-07-30
• ggreer estimated 8% on 2010-09-30
• kallman estimated 1% and said “Gwern: seems “at any pont”. Looking shaky though.” on 2010-11-23
• gwern said “seems to’ve never gone below 9400 in 2010: http://www.djaverages.com/?view=industrial&page=index-data peaking at 11800. marking wrong” on 2011-01-16
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-01-16.