By January 1, 2011 one or more of the following will happen (1) Israel will launch a military attack against Iran, (2) The U.S. will launch a military attack against Iran or (3) a significant number of countries will ban the sale of gasoline to Iran.

Created by JamesMiller on 2009-10-14; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-01-02.

• JamesMiller estimated 60% on 2009-10-14
• Jack said “Define what a significant number of countries is.” on 2009-10-14
• mjgeddes estimated 10% on 2009-10-15
• JamesMiller said “By significant number I mean at least 10 countries that each have a population of over 1 million people.” on 2009-10-15
• Larks estimated 45% on 2009-10-17
• refragable estimated 40% on 2009-10-28
• gwern estimated 20% on 2010-07-30
• gwern said “apparently no current gas embargo at all – http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102×2530143” on 2011-01-02
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-01-02.